Key takeaways
– The NBER is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization that promotes a deeper understanding of the U.S. economy by producing and disseminating empirical economic research. (Investopedia; NBER)
– Its outputs include more than 1,200 working papers and 120+ scholarly conferences each year and it convenes the widely cited Business Cycle Dating Committee that officially dates U.S. recessions and expansions. (NBER)
– The organization’s research network includes roughly 1,600 economists (Faculty Research Fellows and Research Associates), and many current or past affiliates and board members are Nobel laureates. (Investopedia; NBER)
– NBER announcements (for example, recession dating) are often retrospective and based on a committee’s assessment of multiple economic indicators; they are influential but not a real-time signal. (NBER; Investopedia)
1. What the NBER is and what it does
– Mission and status: The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, non-profit, nonpartisan organization whose stated aim is to promote a greater understanding of how the economy works by facilitating empirical economic research and disseminating findings to academics, policymakers, business professionals, and the public. (NBER; Investopedia)
– Core activities:
• Publishing working papers (NBER runs one of the most-used working-paper series in economics; researchers circulate results quickly so peers can critique and build on them).
• Hosting academic conferences and workshops (over 120 each year). (NBER)
• Convening expert committees — most notably the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which declares official U.S. recession and expansion dates. (NBER)
• Producing new measurements, estimating quantitative models, evaluating policy effects, and projecting consequences of policy alternatives. (Investopedia)
2. Organization and people
– Researchers and affiliates: About 1,600 economists are affiliated as Faculty Research Fellows (typically junior scholars) or Research Associates (senior scholars, often tenured at other institutions and appointed by the NBER Board). Many leading scholars in various subfields of economics are NBER affiliates. (Investopedia; NBER)
– Reputation and influence: Numerous current or past NBER board members and affiliates have won the Nobel Prize in Economics, and NBER working papers are a primary channel for new research in the profession. Paul Krugman described the NBER as effectively the professional network of leading economists made formal through the bureau’s working-paper series. (Investopedia; The New York Times)
3. Funding and governance
– Funding sources include research grants from government agencies and private foundations, investment income, and contributions from individuals and corporations. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2020, the NBER reported about $32 million in revenue. (NBER financial statements; Investopedia)
– Governance: Operates under a Board of Directors and appoints Research Associates and committees as needed (e.g., Business Cycle Dating Committee).
4. Business Cycle Dating Committee: purpose and limits
– Purpose: The committee’s role is to determine the dates of peaks and troughs in U.S. economic activity — in short, when expansions end and recessions begin (and when recessions end). Its determinations are the widely cited “official” dating of U.S. business cycles. (NBER)
– Timing and method: Decisions are based on multiple indicators (employment, GDP, industrial production, income, etc.). Declarations are typically made after the fact — for example, the NBER announced in June 2020 that the U.S. had entered a recession beginning in February 2020. That retrospective approach makes the committee authoritative but not a real-time market signal. (NBER; Investopedia)
5. How to use NBER resources — practical steps
Below are actionable steps for different audiences to find, interpret, and use NBER outputs.
For researchers and academics
1. Search and read working papers:
• Go to the NBER website and use the working-paper search by author, topic, or paper number to find recent drafts. (NBER)
• Note that working papers are preliminary; check whether a working paper has been peer‑reviewed and published in a journal before treating it as final.
2. Disseminate and get feedback:
• Consider releasing drafts as NBER working papers to accelerate feedback from the profession (coordinate with a senior NBER affiliate if appropriate).
3. Network and participate:
• Attend NBER conferences and sessions organized by NBER programs in your field to meet affiliates and present work.
4. Path toward affiliation:
• Build a record of high-quality, original research; collaborate with existing NBER affiliates; submit and present at leading conferences. (Appointments as FRFs or RAs are selective and decided by the bureau.)
For policymakers and analysts
1. Use NBER working papers for early access:
• Monitor relevant NBER programs for cutting-edge empirical work related to your policy area.
2. Verify and contextualize:
• Treat working papers as advanced research — assess robustness, check for peer-reviewed follow-ups, and consider policy relevance and external validity.
3. Watch official dating and methodology:
• Use the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee’s statements for historical dating of recessions/expansions, but rely on real-time indicators and forecasting models for immediate policy decisions. (NBER; Investopedia)
For journalists and investors
1. Interpret business-cycle announcements carefully:
• Understand that NBER dating is authoritative but usually retrospective (the committee announced the 2020 recession months after its start). Use the announcement as confirmation and context rather than a trigger for immediate action. (NBER; Investopedia)
2. Use working papers as story leads:
• NBER working papers often contain novel findings and data-driven narratives; verify robustness and seek commentary from independent experts before publishing.
For students and the public
1. Access and learn:
• Browse NBER’s working papers and program pages to learn about current research topics and methods.
2. Follow summaries and press releases:
• Read NBER summary statements and conference announcements for concise descriptions; rely on secondary coverage (e.g., reputable media summaries) when complex empirical methods are involved.
6. Tips for reading and citing NBER work
– Check working-paper status: working papers are preliminary; look for subsequent journal publication for the finalized version.
– Cite appropriately: if using a working paper, cite it as a working paper and include the working paper number and date.
– Look for data and code: many NBER authors release data or replication files; check the paper’s appendix or author webpages for materials to reproduce findings.
7. Influence and limitations — what to keep in mind
– Influence:
• NBER is central to U.S. empirical economics; its working papers and conferences shape scholarly debate and can influence policymaking.
• Many leading economists are affiliated with the bureau, which amplifies its reach. (Investopedia; NBER)
– Limitations:
• Working papers are not peer-reviewed final products.
• Business-cycle dates are determined retrospectively and therefore are not a real-time signal for market timing.
• NBER’s influence reflects its network of top economists; critics sometimes describe it as an “old-boy network,” though others view its role as a useful hub for rapid scholarly communication. (New York Times; Investopedia)
8. Further reading and official sources
– NBER — About the NBER and program pages (working papers, conferences, Business Cycle Dating Committee): / (see relevant program and committee pages)
– Investopedia — “National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)” (summary article): (accessed Oct. 22, 2021)
– NBER — Business Cycle Dating Committee announcement, June 8, 2020 (recession dating): NBER press statement (see NBER website)
– NBER — Financial summary statements (fiscal year ended June 30, 2020): NBER financial report pages
– The New York Times — “Understanding the NBER” (discussion and context): cited in Investopedia summary
– Walk you through how to find and download NBER working papers on a specific topic and how to check whether a paper has been published in a peer‑reviewed journal.
– Summarize a recent NBER working paper and identify its policy implications.