In-depth explainers for major US economic indicators, including Fed policy decisions, inflation, labor market data, and business surveys. Focused on trading impact and market reaction.
The FOMC rate decision is the Fed’s headline policy call on the target range for the federal funds rate: the overnight rate at which US banks lend reserves to each other. It sits at the core of monetary conditions for the entire US and, by extension, much of the global financial system. The decision is […]
The FOMC Statement is the written policy communication released alongside the Fed’s rate decision. It’s a short, highly structured text that describes how the Fed currently sees growth, inflation, and the labour market, plus its assessment of risks and the likely stance of policy going forward. Unlike the rate line (1.1), which is a single […]
This release is the Fed’s own macro and rate roadmap. The “Summary of Economic Projections” (SEP) bundles FOMC participants’ forecasts for real GDP, unemployment, headline and core PCE inflation, and—crucially—the projected federal funds rate (“dot plot”). It’s published four times a year (March, June, September, December) alongside the rate decision and statement. Markets treat it […]
The FOMC Press Conference is the live Q&A session where the Fed Chair explains the policy decision, statement, and projections to the market. It happens right after certain FOMC meetings (the ones with updated projections) and sits squarely in the monetary policy / financial conditions block of the macro calendar. Unlike a hard data release […]
The Beige Book is a qualitative survey of current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve districts in the United States. It compiles anecdotal evidence from businesses, banks, labour market contacts, and local organisations on activity, employment, wages, prices, and sector-specific trends (manufacturing, services, real estate, agriculture, etc.). It’s published eight times per year, roughly […]
US headline CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. In plain terms: it’s the main “cost of living” gauge for US households. It has two key dimensions m/m (month-on-month) – short-term momentum in prices, very important for “is inflation re-accelerating […]
Core CPI measures consumer price inflation excluding food and energy, focusing on the stickier parts of the consumption basket: rents, owners’ equivalent rent, medical services, core goods, etc. It’s a monthly US release and sits squarely in the household/consumption + services inflation part of the economy. Markets treat it as a top-tier, first-look inflation gauge, […]
Producer Price Index (headline, month-on-month) tracks how fast prices received by US producers are changing from one month to the next. It sits “upstream” of CPI: it reflects prices at the factory gate rather than what households pay in shops. The headline m/m figure is the short-term pulse of pipeline inflation in the goods and, […]
US core PPI (m/m) measures the month-over-month change in prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding the volatile food and energy components. It sits early in the inflation pipeline: between input costs (commodities, wages) and the consumer price measures like CPI and PCE. The data are released monthly and, while noisier than CPI/PCE, […]
The US PCE Price Index (m/m) measures the monthly percentage change in prices paid by households for all goods and services in the national accounts framework, including what others (like employers and government) spend on behalf of households. It is the “broad consumption deflator” for the US economy, covering everything from food and energy to […]