Weekly Opening Bias via Recent Candles — AUD Overextension Alert

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Candlestick charts represent the market’s most direct and unfiltered language. As Darren (BestForexMethod) has consistently emphasized, RecentCandles remain a powerful tool for identifying momentum and direction ahead of the weekly open. By analyzing wicks, bodies, and OHLC structures, traders can quickly determine where clarity exists and where markets remain noisy.

Signals from RecentCandles

The multi-pair panels show last week’s closing candles across different instruments. From these structures, we can extract clear directional biases for the weekly open:

  • Long Bias (Strong Buy Side):
    AUDUSD, AUDCAD, AUDNZD (broad Australian dollar strength),
    GBPJPY, GBPUSD (strong Pound momentum),
    USDCAD (USD closing firm).

  • Short Bias (Strong Sell Side):
    EURAUD, EURJPY, EURGBP (Euro crosses under pressure),
    NZDUSD (bearish weekly close),
    XAUUSD (Gold sellers remain dominant).

  • Neutral / Wait:
    EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPCHF (wick-heavy candles with indecision).

AUD Pairs — Momentum and Overextension

AUD pairs stand out due to exceptionally long candles:

  • Such outsized moves often mark a momentum climax.

  • Weekly overextension typically invites a pullback or retest before the trend resumes.

  • EURAUD case study: The very long red candle suggests a likely short-term upward retest early in the week, followed by renewed downside pressure.

Strategic Approach

  • Patience at the weekly open is essential.

  • Expect early-week retests, especially in AUD crosses.

  • Watch price reactions around EMA9/EMA50 zones.

  • Trend-following entries are safer after pullbacks are confirmed, ideally through a 3CR continuation structure.

Darren’s principle applies here: a large candle = trend confirmation, but safe entries often emerge after a retest.

Conclusion

The weekly opening outlook is straightforward:

  • AUD remains fundamentally strong, but overextended — correction risk high at the open.

  • Euro crosses remain weak, with sellers in control.

  • Gold favors the bearish side, though opening volatility is likely.

📌 DominionFX Market Report will continue to provide candlestick-based weekly opening outlooks, highlighting where momentum is cleanest and where patience is required.

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