Markets were shaken on September 11 as two key US data releases painted a conflicting picture: inflation came in hotter than expected, while unemployment claims signaled a weaker labor market.
Key Data (15:30 GMT+3)
- Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (expected 0.3%) → Neutral
- CPI m/m: 0.4% (expected 0.3%) → Higher than expected → Normally USD bullish, Gold bearish
- CPI y/y: 2.9% (expected 2.9%) → In line
- Unemployment Claims: 263K (expected 235K) → Much worse → USD bearish, Gold bullish
Market Reaction (Minute by Minute, XAUUSD M1)
- Pre-release (15:29): Gold consolidated quietly around 3630–3635 with low volume.
- 15:30 – First minute: CPI surprised to the upside → algorithms triggered selling → Gold dropped from 3634 to 3627.
- 15:31 – Second minute: Traders saw unemployment claims at 263K → much worse than forecast → buying pressure kicked in.
- 15:32–15:34: Sharp reversal; Gold surged from 3627 to above 3644 in minutes, fueled by short covering.
- 15:35–15:40: Rally stalled near 3645 resistance; profit-taking brought price back to 3638–3640.
- After 15:40: Gold stabilized in the 3638–3642 range as markets awaited the ECB press conference.
Takeaway
- Initial reaction: Strong CPI → USD up, Gold down.
- Secondary reaction: Weak labor data outweighed CPI → USD lost momentum, Gold rallied.
- Net result: Gold ended higher than pre-data levels, proving once again that markets react to the full picture, not just one headline.